I’ve argued in another
post that our CORONA-invaded world is currently in suspension. That leaves our
bodies, our home office, the lamp and a bunch of unanswered questions to freely
float in a zero-gravity field we couldn’t even imagine last month. We are not used
to tolerate such a massive amount of uncertainties, and we really hunger for some
solid and sound assurances that could help us navigate through this unexpected new
normal. We struggle to get answers, to find some unmovable anchors, but they seem
to elude us. To satisfy their ruthless hunger for robust beliefs some people resorted
to shortcuts, rapidly sketched a theory mascot, swelled it with warm air and hanged
with both hands on it. It’s better to have something than nothing, they encourage
themselves. Understanding that complex problems need complex solutions, other people
try to tolerate the unknown, to carefully look for facts, to launch and test hypothesis
and don’t feel less about themselves when acknowledging the limits of their expertise.
The truth is that we are frantically searching, trying to understand the many aspects
of this crisis, but we just don’t know all the answers yes. If we are serious about
it, we better tolerate these uncomfortable uncertainties now; invest our time in
exploring the facts, use tentative language for our hypothesis, and forget all about
our love affair with certainty. The world has changed dramatically and more surprises
will pop up from under the horizon line as the earth revolves each day, so endorsing
an attitude of expectancy and apprehension seems wise. Now it’s time to embrace
uncertainty, and have a bath in the see of unknown. But as you probably noticed,
not everybody likes this swim. And such unstable and unpredictable environment,
where suspended questions float unattended in space, represents a perfectly fertile
ground for the blossoming of conspiracy theories and apocalyptic speculations.
In February 2020, when China
was struggling to fight CORONA, popular conspiracy theories claimed that the US
must be hidden behind the scene. And the story that almost went out of print was
that Americans got envious for the Chinese economic growths, so they “accidentally”
released the virus in Wuhan. And China’s recession was simply history. In March
2020, when China was out of top 5 countries on both total number of infected cases
and total number of deaths, the conspirators changed abruptly their discourse. They
claimed that actually China is behind the scene, and to augment the plausibility
of their newly fetched theory, proposed a play-like scenario. In scene one: the
EU and US companies based in China had to stop production due to the crisis, and
consequently their value on the stock market dropped. In scene two: Wuhan is in
lock down, over 80.000 cases and 3.000 deaths are registered countrywide, but miraculously
Shanghai and Beijing - the Chinese economic and political capitals – remain virtually
untouched by the virus. In scene three: China redresses rapidly and starts purchasing
at a lower price the EU/US companies based there. And such reliable theories – that
peaked at the level of unmovable convictions and were generously shared on social
media - were made up in just a few minutes after seeing a couple of videos on YouTube.
Wouldn’t it have been better for these guys to replace their firm convictions with
a hypothesis-oriented approach, to better look for the facts, and to postpone jumping
in unknown waters for the sake of keeping intact their neck vertebras?
There is another group who made
a personal mission from carefully watching the end of the world scenarios. They
are familiar with the Bible and can easily cite many Revelation verses that, in
their view, can be reliably linked to the current societal challenges. And the events
occasioned by the CORONA crisis represent just the perfect context for unleashing
their apocalyptic projections and fears. They are already shouting out loud “The
end of the world is here!” and direct our attention to Bill Gates prophecies on
the imminent
dangers of epidemics, as if the predictions of computerized models have anything
to do with divine revelations. They honestly want to be involved in the saving business
and lean towards using all their ammunition now, before it’s too late for the world
to hear. However, what they tend to ignore is that a sanitary crises, with all its
economic and political consequences, could be just a bump in the world history and
not the final 100 meter World Olympic race. Their low tolerance for ambiguity and
previous religious distortions made them amenable to quickly embrace and disseminate
unsupported conclusions. Wouldn’t it have been better for them to simply use tentative
language, acknowledge their apprehension and embrace the present unknown more peacefully?
Wouldn’t it have been better to tentatively ask rhetorical questions about the end
(either of the entire world or of our individual lives), or allude to some difficult
to solve challenges around searching for what’s really valuable in life?
These are only two examples for
how proclaiming hasty reached conclusions before the game is over could end up as
a hugely effective way to attract shame. If the first conspiracy theory proponents
would have hesitated only a few weeks with their launch, they would have had the
chance to witness how Donald’s Trump undeterred optimism got unmercifully trumped
by CORONA. If US were behind the scheme as they hypothesized, how come they pay
the largest bill in terms of infected cases, death toll and economic loss? And how serious will the world take the next message
of those who spend all their ammunition with lancing firmly believed apocalyptic
scenarios that run the risk of remaining children imaginative stories? Well, no
more serious that the “Help! The wolf is near!” jokes we all laughed about. Do you
see now why it’s not wise to bypass the hard and time-consuming work of being serious
grounded in facts before launching your theory?
In times of uncertainty we are
forced to exercise our muscle of frustration tolerance, whether we are enthusiastic
about it or not. If the strengths of looking the void in the eye seems hidden from
you, and the need to have an explanation now (and not next month) overpowers your
tolerance of uncertainty, then go buy those cheap conspiracy or apocalyptic inspired
theories. But remember that cheap theories resemble cheap clothing. They both tend
to wear off quite fast, and in no time your friends will easily see through such
a rag your deficits of vitamin D on your un-tanned skin. What’s that? Oh, you stay
home and nobody except your family can see your clothing for the moment. But I was
referring to the conspiracy/apocalyptic outfit you wore (are still wearing?) on
social media and all the selfies you posted on your second life account hoping to
get un unprecedented number of likes.
It’s true that this crisis massively
restructured our business as usual, and the ball is still rolling, and we don’t
see the end of the valley yet. It’s true that we simply don’t know how the governments
might react if CORONA decides to increase her death toll rate to 10 or 20%. It’s
true that it might be unwise to discard as phantasmagoric some hypothesis before
really checking the underlying facts and arguments (and I mean checking the facts
and arguments up to the limit of perfectionism but not beyond that point!). It’s
true that it’s wise to prepare, and be on guard, and not relax prematurely as “in
this world something always does go wrong … and the unexpected does happen – regularly.”[1] It’s true that now it’s a time to be apprehensive
and consider – that is think deeply about – your next jump. But don’t jump just
yet!
Finally, I was insistently advised
by my consciousness to release a short list of strategies that could be freely used
by those who want to save some of their credit for the next face-to-face meeting
with colleagues and neighbors. So unless you have accepted Albert Ellis’s shame
attacking challenge (i.e., when clients perform harmless but intentionally shameful
behavior in public as a way to increase their tolerance for negative emotions),
try following these 7 warning signs:
What appears today as solid theory
tomorrow might be proven wrong!
Be open to all possible hypotheses
but look for the hard-proven facts!
If you care for the value of
your money don’t buy cheap stuff!
Jump only after checking the
depth of the pond!
For the moment use tentative
language!
And keep some credits for later!
Disclaimer: I just hope you will
find charming when I spill over the limits of my English as a second language.
Note: If you happen to be a journalist
and think that every now and then I could contribute to the success of your publication,
be bold and came up with a good offer. However, bear in mind that I only write about
topics I deeply care, so let me drive the roller-coaster.
Email:
Bogdan.Tulbure@e-uvt.ro
[1] Robert Farrar Capon (2002) Kingdom, Grace, Judgment,
William B Eerdmans Publishing Co Michigan/Cambridge
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